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-   -   Recession (http://www.ramforumz.com/showthread.php?t=43278)

pwrwgnman 10-30-2009 07:24 AM

Recession
 
I keep seeing the "experts" saying we are coming out of it, but yesterday the company I work for is pretty much closed down and a couple friends told me the company they work for is going to lay off at least 270 people sometime between now and Thanksgiving...
Such a pity and such BS

CajunDodge 10-30-2009 07:43 AM

I keep hearing the same thing, and people are still having to take two weeks off without pay and whatnot, yet the White House is trying to take credit for a modest 3.5% growth in GDP. Ok, so where's the jobs that were suppoed to be created with the stimulus package? I think all they managed to do was hold off a few more job losses, but your situation certainly doesn't reflect that. Hope you're not in any danger!

- Cajun :pepper:

pwrwgnman 10-30-2009 09:08 AM

The only thing that really saved me is that I payed my mortgage off early, if it wasnt for that me and the kids would be living in a card board box somehwere, I know there are alot more people worse off than me and I feel for them,
I spent the last several years getting basically debt free because I kinda had a feeling things were gonna get bad and I wont ever finance anything ever,(one credit card left from my previous marriage lol)
I dont think this is any where close to being over and I hate to say I think its gonna get worse before it gets better...
I wonder what them "experts" will say when this holiday seasons number come in.....
and what they will say the reason is for the bad cash flow this year...
I do think they used the C4C figures to say that things were getting stable, and Im figuring that in the next year or so that the repo people are gonna be makin a ton of money..
I also saw on the news that they have "introduced a similar program" for appliances where you can turn in your old appliances and get from 50 to 500 bucks tax credit for the trade ins..I see alotta holes in that bucket too...

Bobcat06 10-30-2009 11:38 AM

Yeah, starting in January you can turn in your old appliances (refridgerators, washer, dryer) for a new energy efficient one for a $250 incentive.

GPSHSLAX 10-30-2009 12:05 PM

The biggest problem with the recent "economic turn around" is the method by which it was achived. Companies are becoming profitable again through cost cutting, not improved sales. The net effect is that corperate america is climbing out but at the expense of ... you guessed it, all of us.

Of course there is also the issue with economic anaylist seeming to think recesion is some sort of evil voodoo word. We were in a recesion long before they admitted it (about a year and a half when they actually processed the data) and we are far from out of the woods, but they seem to think if they say it's over then everything will be all better. I think we would all be better off if the experts would pull their heads out of the sand.

erm 10-30-2009 12:29 PM

"Economic turn around" my sweet ass. We haven't caught up to where we were when things went sour. More and more people I know are getting laid off, local businesses are running shorter hours, manufacturing is still down, a 3.5% GDP rise was based on a prior quarter and wasn't in comparison to the GDP at the time of the recession and all this "We are making changes and have seen significant gains in the economy." talk is plain B.S.

We may have seen the bottom of this "downturn" (why pull punches? It's a freakin' recession!) with the housing market starting to stabilize but we won't see a return to a prosperous economy for some time.

Now who should be shot, hung, drawn & quartered for this? Well, we have "toxic assets" created by the banks and sleazy fly by night lending institutions who gave anyone any amount they needed to buy a house they couldn't afford. We have off the books "derivatives" which weren't regulated and were the key element to the crash.

If you aren't familiar with "derivatives", basically derivatives are financial securities whose value is derived from another "underlying" financial security. Options, futures, swaps, swaptions, structured notes are all examples of derivative securities. Derivatives can be used hedging, protecting against financial risk, or can be used to speculate on the movement of commodity or security prices, interest rates or the levels of financial indices. The valuation of derivatives makes use of the statistical mathematics of uncertainty, which is very complex.

So, these financial wizards were basically speculating and hedging on projected values of someone else's derivatives, whose derivatives were based on projected values of someone else's derivatives whose derivatives were....bleah...bleah...bleah...

They got creative. They got greedy. We got screwed.

Lil Black 4x4 Hemi 10-30-2009 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MADDOG (Post 97659)
"Economic turn around" my sweet ass. We haven't caught up to where we were when things went sour. More and more people I know are getting laid off, local businesses are running shorter hours, manufacturing is still down, a 3.5% GDP rise was based on a prior quarter and wasn't in comparison to the GDP at the time of the recession and all this "We are making changes and have seen significant gains in the economy." talk is plain B.S.

Preachin to the choir brotha!

Quote:

We may have seen the bottom of this "downturn" (why pull punches? It's a freakin' recession!) with the housing market starting to stabilize but we won't see a return to a prosperous economy for some time.
4-5 years is a guess I hear punted around quite a bit.

Quote:

Now who should be shot, hung, drawn & quartered for this? Well, we have "toxic assets" created by the banks and sleazy fly by night lending institutions who gave anyone any amount they needed to buy a house they couldn't afford. We have off the books "derivatives" which weren't regulated and were the key element to the crash.
We gotta give credit where it's due. It's our Reps, Sens, and former Pres who thought buying a house should be as easy as buying a car.

Quote:

If you aren't familiar with "derivatives", basically derivatives are financial securities whose value is derived from another "underlying" financial security. Options, futures, swaps, swaptions, structured notes are all examples of derivative securities. Derivatives can be used hedging, protecting against financial risk, or can be used to speculate on the movement of commodity or security prices, interest rates or the levels of financial indices. The valuation of derivatives makes use of the statistical mathematics of uncertainty, which is very complex.

So, these financial wizards were basically speculating and hedging on projected values of someone else's derivatives, whose derivatives were based on projected values of someone else's derivatives whose derivatives were....bleah...bleah...bleah...
Options have been around a while, it's not like options and swaps are a new game. We were trading Options in the 90s boom.....and we're trading them in the 00's bust. It's just that so much of that stuff was a deck of cards built on CMOs (Collateral Mortgage Securities) REITS (Real Estate Investment Trusts). CMOs and REITs only function correctly when the vast majority of everyone pays their rent and mortages. CMOs were considered ALMOST as safe as a CD until the house of cards came down last year.

There's a book I'm reading right now by Nick Murray called the Excellent Investment Advisor. He makes a VERY valid point that you must have a price correction every so often...BUT it's what you do at that time that matters most. Right now you should look at the whole country like it's on sale and buy up as many equities as possible, except in GM of course! :LOL: Because the market WILL go up as long as there are still people breathing.

Quote:

They got creative. They got greedy. We got screwed.
We all got greedy, and we're all reaping what we sew. :doh:

Luke

erm 10-30-2009 01:11 PM

Good points, Luke. Me, I didn't get greedy. I paid off my house and kept my money in a conservative portfolio which still took a hit but it didn't sink.

Shades of 1929...anyone can speculate but those derivatives were a pure house of cards...when confidence in them and the institutions wavered, and they were called in, the value dropped like a lead balloon. And to some extent, they did have value...book value at the institution that held them. Problem is, there was no real asset behind them.

Lil Black 4x4 Hemi 10-30-2009 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MADDOG (Post 97685)
Good points, Luke. Me, I didn't get greedy. I paid off my house and kept my money in a conservative portfolio which still took a hit but it didn't sink.

Shades of 1929...anyone can speculate but those derivatives were a pure house of cards...when confidence in them and the institutions wavered, and they were called in, the value dropped like a lead balloon. And to some extent, they did have value...book value at the institution that held them. Problem is, there was no real asset behind them.

Yeah, I know what you mean about debt. My Ram is my biggest liability and I hate having a truck payment. Maybe if me and her ever part ways I'll have enough cash to not worry about it......one day....

I didn't mean you specifically were greedy I meant American's in general....even our "conservative" 401Ks! I don't mind paying more for products if they're made over here, but that's not the attitude of most, that's part of the greed I'm REALLY talking about I guess.

Just remember the whole country is on sale, buff up that portfolio! :D

You are ABSOLUTELY right there are shades of 29 in there. I'm not a fan of Margin accounts or lots of options or SWAPS etc.

A scary/weird tangent here....a few months ago a buddy of mine was talking to a guy who works with him and owns property butted right up against the Ozark National Forest. He said there were surveyors running here and there. The guy asked what was going on and one of the surveyors said that they were surveying the forest because it had been pledged as US collateral for treasury debt to the........Chinese. :SHOCKED:

Maybe it's a campfire story but I could soooo see the govt. doing that and not even knowing.

Luke

erm 10-30-2009 01:59 PM

Oh, they sure will mortgage this country to the hilt and they have to show some collateral...why not put the country up as collateral?

Before ya know it, the foreign debt holders will call it all in and end up owning the country.


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